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Contested claim · Science & research · §0283

Is the Earth flat?

The claim asks whether Earth’s overall shape is a flat plane rather than a roughly spherical planet. The available scientific record strongly supports Earth being an oblate spheroid, with many independent lines of evidence from astronomy, navigation, geodesy, photography, and gravity measurements.

Reviewed by 10 models 7 curated references 23 revisions Updated 19 hours ago 5 min read

Panel verdict

9/10 agreement 94% confidence 10% spread 30 May 2026 filed

9 reviewing models concluded the claim is not supported by the available evidence.

The Adjudged panel has not yet completed its full review of this claim. This draft summarizes the main evidence and likely points of evaluation for a future panel assessment, and source candidates listed here are provided for review rather than treated as final citations.

Why this question matters

The claim asks whether Earth’s overall shape is a flat plane rather than a roughly spherical planet. The available scientific record strongly supports Earth being an oblate spheroid, with many independent lines of evidence from astronomy, navigation, geodesy, photography, and gravity measurements.

The claim being judged

The claim being judged is whether Earth is flat in its overall physical shape. In common use, this usually means Earth is a broad plane or disk, rather than a globe-like body with curvature in all directions.

A related but narrower claim is whether people can directly notice Earth’s curvature in ordinary daily life. Because Earth is very large, the curvature over short distances is small, so local terrain, buildings, hills, refraction, and perspective can make the ground appear flat to an observer.

The judgment here focuses on Earth’s global shape, not whether a person standing in one place can easily see curvature with the unaided eye.

What the evidence shows

Multiple independent methods indicate that Earth is not flat. Ships and aircraft navigate using models of Earth as a sphere-like body, and long-distance routes, time zones, sunrise and sunset patterns, and seasonal changes fit that model closely.

Astronomical observations also support a curved Earth. During lunar eclipses, Earth’s shadow on the Moon is consistently curved, and different stars become visible at different latitudes. The altitude of Polaris in the Northern Hemisphere changes predictably with latitude, which is expected on a curved surface.

Geodesy and satellite measurements provide more precise evidence. Earth is measured as an oblate spheroid, meaning it is slightly wider at the equator than from pole to pole. This shape is consistent with gravitational measurements, orbital mechanics, GPS, and modern mapping systems.

Images and measurements from spacecraft, weather satellites, lunar missions, and Earth-observing satellites provide another line of evidence. These records are produced by many agencies and countries and are also consistent with everyday technologies that rely on orbital predictions.

Where uncertainty remains

There is little scientific uncertainty about Earth’s broad shape, but there can be uncertainty in specific demonstrations. For example, photos taken with wide-angle lenses can distort the horizon, and atmospheric refraction can affect how distant objects appear over water.

There are also practical questions about how best to explain the evidence to non-specialists. Some observations that seem simple, such as seeing a distant skyline or horizon, require care because local height, weather, optics, and terrain can influence what is visible.

The remaining uncertainty is therefore not about whether Earth is a flat plane or a spheroid, but about the interpretation of particular observations and the precision of specific measurements.

The three parts of the claim

The umbrella claim is actually several claims bundled into one. Each needs its own evaluation.

PART 1 / 3
Earth’s overall shape is a flat plane or disk rather than a sphere-like body.
Not supported99%
PART 2 / 3
Earth is better described by modern geodesy as an oblate spheroid than as a perfect sphere.
Yes99%
PART 3 / 3
Local visual impressions of flatness are sufficient to determine Earth’s global shape.
Not supported95%

Model comparison

How each panel model rated the three parts of the claim
Model Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Overall
Grok 4.3 No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 90%
Mistral Medium 3.5 No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 90%
OpenAI GPT-5.4 No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 90%
Llama 4 Maverick No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 99%
Gemini 3.1 Pro No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 100%
DeepSeek V4 Pro No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 90%
Claude Opus 4.7 No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 90%
Qwen 3.7 Max No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 100%
GLM 5.1 No · 99% No · 99% No · 95% No · 100%
Kimi K2.6 Incomplete
An honest commitment

What would change our mind

The current evidence leans one way. But we're not committed to the conclusion, we're committed to the evidence.

  • A reproducible global geodetic survey showing that distances, angles, and gravitational measurements fit a flat-plane model better than an oblate-spheroid model.
  • A working navigation and positioning model based on a flat Earth that predicts long-distance routes, time zones, star positions, and satellite-like observations more accurately than existing models.
  • Independent astronomical observations showing that eclipses, star visibility by latitude, and planetary motions are consistently incompatible with a curved Earth model.
  • Transparent, independently replicated measurements demonstrating that orbital mechanics, GPS, and Earth-observation data can be explained without a sphere-like Earth.

Common questions

Why does the ground look flat if Earth is curved?
Earth is very large, so its curvature is small over the scale of a person, a street, or even many landscapes. Local hills, buildings, waves, and perspective also affect what people see. A flat-looking horizon nearby does not determine the planet’s global shape.
Can ordinary observations show Earth’s curvature?
Some observations can show effects consistent with curvature, such as changing star positions with latitude, ships disappearing hull-first over the horizon, and differences in sunrise or sunset times across long distances. These observations need careful setup because weather, height above sea level, and atmospheric refraction can affect results.
Are satellite images the only evidence for Earth’s shape?
No. Satellite images are one line of evidence, but the conclusion also rests on navigation, astronomy, lunar eclipses, geodetic surveys, gravity measurements, and the performance of GPS and orbital systems. These lines of evidence come from different methods and institutions.
Is Earth a perfect sphere?
No. Earth is commonly modeled as an oblate spheroid, meaning it bulges slightly at the equator and is slightly flattened at the poles. It also has local variations from mountains, ocean trenches, and differences in gravity.

References

Government Science Agency

NASA-EARTH Earth NASA Solar System Exploration Provides a general scientific overview of Earth, including its physical characteristics.
NOAA-GEODESY What is geodesy? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Explains the field that measures Earth’s size, shape, orientation, and gravity field.

Government Data Portal

USGS-EARTH EarthExplorer U.S. Geological Survey Offers access to Earth-observation satellite data that can be used to examine global mapping and imagery.

Space Agency

ESA-EARTH Observing the Earth European Space Agency Describes Earth-observing satellite missions and measurements from an independent international space agency.

Reference

BRITANNICA-EARTH Earth Encyclopaedia Britannica Provides a general reference overview of Earth’s physical properties and place in the solar system.

Government Geospatial Agency

NGA-WGS84 World Geodetic System 1984 National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Candidate source for the geodetic reference system used in mapping, GPS, and global positioning.

Public Science Tool

TIMEANDDATE Day and Night World Map timeanddate.com Provides a visual tool for checking daylight, nighttime, and solar patterns across Earth.

What each model said

Grok 4.3 Success

No, the Earth is not flat. Multiple independent lines of evidence from astronomy, satellite imagery, geodesy, gravity surveys, and navigation establish it as an oblate spheroid with an equatorial bulge, as docu...

x-ai/grok-4.3-20260430 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
Mistral Medium 3.5 Success

The Earth is not flat; it is an oblate spheroid. This conclusion is supported by overwhelming and independent scientific evidence, including: 1. **Direct Observations**: Photographs from space (e.g., NASA, ESA)...

mistralai/mistral-medium-3.5-20260430 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
OpenAI GPT-5.4 Success

No. Earth is not flat; it is very well established to be an oblate spheroid, meaning sphere-like but slightly bulged at the equator and flattened at the poles. Confidence: Very high. Key evidence: - Modern geod...

openai/gpt-5.4-20260305 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
Llama 4 Maverick Success

The Earth is not flat. Confidence: 99%. The overwhelming scientific evidence from various fields confirms that the Earth is an oblate spheroid. Key evidence includes satellite imagery, spacecraft observations,...

meta-llama/llama-4-maverick-17b-128e-instruct 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
Gemini 3.1 Pro Success

The Earth is not flat; it is an oblate spheroid. I have 100% confidence in this assessment. The scientific consensus, supported by centuries of observation and modern technology, overwhelmingly refutes the clai...

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview-20260219 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
DeepSeek V4 Pro Success

The Earth is not flat; it is an oblate spheroid (a slightly flattened sphere) with an equatorial diameter of about 12,756 km and a polar diameter of about 12,714 km. Confidence in this conclusion is extremely h...

deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-20260423 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
Claude Opus 4.7 Divergent view

No, the Earth is not flat. The Earth is an oblate spheroid — a sphere slightly flattened at the poles and bulging at the equator due to its rotation. This is one of the most thoroughly established facts in the physical sciences. Confidence: Very high (effectively certain, >99.99%). Key evidence: - Direct imagery: Thousands of photographs and continuous video from satellites (NOAA, NASA, ESA, EUMETSAT), the International Space Station, lunar missions, and independent commercial operators (e.g., Planet Labs, Maxar) s...

anthropic/claude-4.7-opus-20260416 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
Qwen 3.7 Max Success

No, the Earth is not flat. I have near 100% confidence in this determination. The overwhelming empirical data from modern geodesy, astronomy, and space exploration confirm that the Earth is an oblate spheroid....

qwen/qwen3.7-max-20260520 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
GLM 5.1 Success

No, the Earth is not flat. Confidence: 100%. Key evidence: Multiple independent lines of scientific inquiry confirm the Earth is an oblate spheroid. These include satellite imagery and observations from space a...

z-ai/glm-5.1-20260406 30 May 2026 01:01 stop
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